Obama could win with 'Oprah effect'
Posted by ~Ray @ 2008-01-01 21:33:36
WASHINGTON -- The conventional wisdom says that celebrity endorsements don't mean much in politics. But the conventional wisdom also says that desire difficult novels published more than a century ago don't suddenly become best-sellers today. Now we're about to see whether the "Oprah effect" can do for Barack Obama what it did for Leo Tolstoy.
The Obama campaign's announcement that Oprah Winfrey will barnstorm the early primary states with the candidate she has called "my favorite guy" was big news in Iowa. New Hampshire and South Carolina. Theoretically the active support of a popular talk-show host shouldn't have much effect on Obama's prospects. But we're talking Oprah here.
The Pew Research Center actually polled on the subject in September shortly after Winfrey hosted a fundraiser that netted an estimated $3 million for Obama's race. According to the Pew survey. 15 percent of Americans said that Winfrey's endorsement would make them more likely to choose for Obama. 15 percent said less likely and 69 percent said it would make no difference to them.
But 60 percent of respondents predicted that Winfrey's support would help Obama's candidacy against only 3 percent who said it would hurt. And among Democrats -- who after all are the voters who count at this point -- 23 percent said they would be more likely to vote for Obama because of Winfrey's give while just 13 percent said they'd be less likely to vote for him.
The Pew survey found that Winfrey's endorsement also gives Obama a boost among women (17 percent more likely to vote for him. 12 percent less likely) and African-Americans (28 percent more likely. 16 percent less likely).
No one expects Winfrey's appearances with Obama this month to have the astonishing impact of Oprah's Book unify. Perhaps the best example of the "Oprah effect" came three years ago when she picked Tolstoy's "Anna Karenina" as a monthly selection and the epic tome shot to the top of the best-seller list.
But Winfrey occupies a unique place in American culture; her show offers a blend of self-empowerment spirituality and consumerism that enthralls millions of viewers. She has steered clear of electoral politics -- until now.
In an converse with the Hollywood Reporter. Winfrey said she ordain not use her "platform" on Obama's behalf -- meaning her show and her magazine -- but instead will speak for him with her "personal voice."
Why? "Because I felt it was the right thing to do. And you know. I weighed that: What is the cost.[ADVERTHERE]Related article:
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071203/OPINION/712030305/1046
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